In life, we've seen within this part of the world great people like Al-Khawarizmi who invented algorithm. Globally(世界上), Newton, Henry Ford(浅滩), the right brother, Albert Einstein, and Elon Musk. It seems you are in rush( 冲). You want to go to places that nobody been. You are reinventing a certain industry from the rocket(火箭) industry with SpaceX to the car industry with Tesla. What's your mission(使命) life?
Why you do whatever you do? First of all, thank you for having me. It's an honor to be here. We're having a really great time with my kids in Dubai. It's been fantastic. I really encourage anyone who hasn't been to visit.
What a great city. In terms of the motivations(动机), I guess there's sort of a long version of the explanation. When I was a kid, I was wondering what's the meaning of life? Why are we here? What's it all about? I came to the conclusion that what really matters is trying to understand the right questions to ask.
The more that we can increase the scope(范围) and scale(刻度) of human consciousness(意识), the better we are able to ask these questions. I think there are certain things that are necessary to ensure(保证) that the future is good. Some of those things are in the long term having long term sustainable(可以忍受的) transport and sustainable(可以忍受的) energy generation. To be a space bearing(承担) civilization(文明) and for humanity(人性) to be out there among the stars and be a multi-planetary species, being a multi-planetary(行星的) species and being out there among the stars is important for the long term survival( 幸存) of humanity(人性). That's one reason, kind of like life insurance(保险) for life collectively, life as we know it. The part that I find personally most motivating is that it creates a sense of adventure and it makes(使) people excited about the future.
If you consider two futures, one where we are forever confined(限制) to earth until eventually something terrible happens or another future where we are out there on many planets, maybe even going beyond(在…的那边) the solar(太阳的) system, I think that second version is incredibly exciting and inspiring(鼓舞人心的). There need to be reasons to get up in the morning. Life can't just be about solving problems. Otherwise(另外), what's the point? It's got to be things that people find inspiring and make life worth living. So what is life for you?
I mean, you look at our life and I heard you before speaking. Is it a dream? Is it a million D? What is life for Elon Musk? As I get older, I find that question to be maybe more and more confusing or troubling or uncertain. I think particularly when you see the advancement(进步) of something like video games, like say 40 years ago, you had video games, the most advanced video game would be like Pong where you had like two rectangles and a dot(点), like batting(用球棒击球) it back and forth(向前).
Oh yeah, me too, exactly. I play Pong. It sort of dates you a little bit, but we both played the same game. And that was like, wow, that was a pretty fun game at the time. But now you can see a video game that's photorealistic, almost photorealistic, and millions of people playing simultaneously(同时地). And you see where things are going with virtual([计] 虚拟的) reality and augmented(增加) reality.
And if you extrapolate that out into the future with any rate of progress at all, like even 0.1% or something like that a year, then eventually those games will be indistinguishable from reality. That we're so realistic(现实的), you will not be able to tell the difference between that game and the reality as we know it. And then it seems like, well, how do we know that that didn't happen in the past and that we're not in one of those games ourselves? Interesting, interesting. I mean, could be. Everything is possible in life.
I mean, there's, I mean, yeah, particularly like things seem to be accelerating(加速) to some, to something. Isn't it, I mean, if we look at our life, a scene in the past 100 years, life been accelerating quite fast. Yeah. In the past 20, it's getting faster and faster. Is it more or slow? So my question is really how life will be in air 20, 30, 50 years from now, our education, our transport.
How do you see it? Well, I think this is one of those things that's quite difficult to predict. When you think of, say, I mean, the first controlled powered flight was 1903 with the Wright Brothers. And then 66 years later, we put the first people on the moon. I mean, that, if you'd ask people, say, in 1900, what are the odds(奇数) of, you know, man landing(降落(或跳落、跌落)到地面(或水面上)) on the moon, they would have said, that's ridiculous(可笑的). And if you try to talk to them about the internet, they would not even know what the heck you're even talking about.
Like, this sounds so crazy. But today, with a $100 device, you can video conference with anyone in the world, on the other side of the world. And if you have a Wi-Fi connection, it's basically(基本上) free. Free to have an instant(立即的) visual(视觉的) communication with anyone, or even with millions of people. With social media, you can communicate to millions of people simultaneously. And you can Google something and ask any question.
It's like an article of wisdom( 智慧) that you can ask almost any question and get an instant(立即的) response. It would have been incredibly difficult to predict these things in the past, even the relatively( 相对地) recent past. So I think the one thing that we can be quite certain of is that any predictions we make today for the future will be like in 50 years will be wrong. That's for sure. I mean, I think directionally, I can tell you what I hope the future has, as opposed(反对) to maybe what it will be. Because this may just be wishful thinking.
I mean, I hope we are out there on Mars, and maybe beyond Mars, the moons of Jupiter([天] 木星). I hope we're traveling frequently throughout the solar system, perhaps preparing for missions to nearby(附近的) star systems. I think all of this is possible within 50 years. And I think that will be very exciting to do that. And I think we'll see autonomy(自治) and artificial(人工的) intelligence advance(进展) tremendously. I think that's actually quite near term.
My guess is in probably 10 years, it will be very unusual for cars to be built that are not fully(充分地) autonomous. 10 years. 10 years from now. Yeah. I think almost all cars built will be capable(有能力的) of full autonomy(自治) in about 10 years. As it is, the Tesla cars that are made today have the sensor(传感器) system necessary for full autonomy(自治).
And we think probably enough compute(计算) power to be safer than a person. So it's mostly just a question of developing the software and uploading the software. And if it turns out that the compute power, that more compute power is needed, we can easily upgrade(提高) the computer. And so that's all Tesla's built since October of last year. And other manufacturers(制造商) will follow and do the same thing. So getting in a car will be like getting in an elevator.
You just tell it where you want to go and it takes you there with extreme levels of safety. And that'll be normal. It'll just be normal. For elevators, there used to be elevator operators(操作人员). You get in, there'd be a guy moving a lever(杆). And now you just get in, you press the button, and that's taken for granted(授予).
So autonomy will be widespread(普遍的). I think one of the most troubling questions is artificial intelligence. And I don't mean narrow AI. Like a vehicle autonomy I would put in the narrow AI class. It's narrowly(仔细地) trying to achieve a certain function. But deep artificial intelligence, or what is sometimes called artificial general intelligence, where you could have AI that is much smarter than the smartest human on Earth.
This, I think, is a dangerous situation. Why it is dangerous? I mean, there is two view. One view is artificial intelligence will help humanity. There is another school of thought that is artificial intelligence that is a threat(威胁) to humanity(人性). Why is that?
Well, I think it's both. You know, it's like, one way to think of it is imagine we're going to be visited. Imagine you're very confident that we're going to be visited by super(特级的) intelligent aliens(外国的) in, let's say, 10 years or 20 years at the most. Super intelligent. Do you think within 20 years we'll have alien on Earth? Well, digital super intelligence will be like an alien.
It will be like an alien. Yeah. But my question is, do you think there is other intelligent life outside the Earth? It seems probable(或有的). But I think this is one of the great questions in physics and philosophy(哲学) is, where are the aliens? Maybe they're among us.
I don't know. Some people think I'm an alien. Not true. Not true. But maybe we are aliens.