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2024年03月15日
如何预测未来|帕芙琳娜·卢森斯卡
鼓舞人心的演讲:TEDx Worldwide 的新见解
WGSN 预测植物奶将占领世界。 但他们表示,他们能够以 95% 的把握预测未来七年的情况。 世界上最好的公司是“Kukivo-yomu”
Raise your hand if you take your coffee with alternative milk,

How to predict the future | Pavlína Louženská

Raise your hand if you take your coffee with alternative milk,

00:00
11:37
  Raise your hand if you take your coffee with alternative(供选择的) milk, like oat([植]燕麦) milk, coconut(椰子) milk, or almond milk. Great. Raise your hand again if you took your coffee with alternative milk 10 years ago. I see only mark, almost. Still, in 2014, the Transfer(转让) Casting Agency(经办), WGSN, predicted that plant-based(以…作基础) milks will take over the world. And in 2017, they added a report that, "Oatly is that one brand(商品) to watch."
  And they were 100% right. Between the years 2018 and 2022, sales of plant-based milks went up 25 times. And, "Oatly," they made $195 million just last year. No wonder( 奇迹) that in that 2014 report, WGSN claimed(声称) that they are able to predict the future up to seven years ahead(在前) with 95% certainty(必然). Around the time of 2014, 2016, they released(释放) reports that by now, we will all be in love with yoga(瑜珈(意为“结合”), check, that we will dig(掘) heels(脚后跟) for sneakers, check, that we will start listening to K-pop, check, that we will fill our houses with plants, check, and that for a moment, we will consider having AI instead of a boyfriend. Check.
  When I first discovered the world of Transfer Casting(投) Agencies(经办) about 10 years ago, I remember how I called my younger brother, and I was blabbering into the phone. I was like(喜欢), "Oh, there are people, and they know what you will love, and what you will eat, and..." It was as if I discovered unicorns exist, and they somehow(由于某种原因) did. There were people who could see something none of us could see. They could see the future. So let me tell you a story, how it's possible that somebody can see the future.
  What was the first thing you did when you entered this room? You looked around. You looked at the people, their clothes, their facial expressions, their body language. You overheard(无意中听到) their conversations. You maybe peeked into their iPhone screens, into their bags. You smelled their perfume, or the like of it, or what they had for lunch.
  Essentially( 本质上), what you were doing is called "Kukivo-yomu". It's a Japanese term for reading the room. It's exactly what we as Transfer Castors do. We are constantly(不断地) reading the room. We are picking up signals(信号). We are searching for patterns.
  We see the world as one global(全球的) room. And we are looking at social media(媒体) listening, and Google Trends, and IPO fillings(填充), and stock(树干) prices, and whatever(任何) else. We are constantly looking for patterns. Because on those patterns, we are able to build forecasts(预测). Every time I talk about transfer casting, I always say it's a bit like surfing. "Kukivo-yomu" gives you the ability to spot(认出) the waves, to see the waves which are coming.
  And it also gives you the ability to understand when you should stand on that board and start surfing. The best companies in the world are the best surfers.

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重点单词:

C1
oat:noun.[植]燕麦, 麦片粥
Hollywood:noun.好莱坞
top:verb.高出,超越;结束;达到顶点
alpha:noun.希腊字母的第一个字母;开端;最初
philosopher:noun.哲学家
discord:noun.不和;不调和;嘈杂声
forecaster:noun.预报员
B2
nowadays:adv.现今,现在
household:noun.家庭,户;家务
coconut:noun.椰子;椰子肉
overhear:verb.无意中听到;偷听
income:noun.收入;收益;进款
forecast:noun.预测,预报;预想
pace:noun.步,步速
fantasy:noun. 想象, 幻想
heel:noun.脚后跟, 踵, 跟部
constantly:adv.不断地;时常地
courage:noun.勇气,胆量,胆识
transfer:noun.转让;转移;传递;过户
agency:noun.经办;代理;代理处
certainty:noun.必然;肯定
dig:verb.掘,挖;采掘
cast:verb.投,扔,抛;浇铸
retailer:noun.零售商人, 传播的人
barely:adv.几乎不,仅仅
ton:noun.吨;很多,大量
brief:adj.简短的,简洁的;短暂的,草率的
transfer:noun.转让;转移;传递;过户
gaming:noun.
decent:adj.正派的;得体的;相当好的
somehow:adv.由于某种原因
essentially:adv. 本质上; 基本上
medium:noun.媒体, 方法, 媒介
unknown:adj.未知的;陌生的,默默无闻的
spot:verb.认出;弄脏;用灯光照射
fantasy:noun. 想象, 幻想
lord:noun.贵族;上帝
mass:adj.群众的,民众的;大规模的,集中的
gain:verb.获得;增加
transfer:verb.转让;转学;换车
agency:noun.经办;代理;代理处
stock:noun.树干, 库存, 股票, 股份, 托盘, 祖先, 血统, 原料
trust:verb.相信;委托
B1
wonder:noun. 奇迹
claim:verb.声称,主张;索取
trend:noun.倾向, 趋势
content:noun. 满意; 内容
consume:verb.消耗,消费;消灭
except:cconj.除了;要不是
consumer:noun.消费者;用户,顾客
generation:noun.一代;产生;一代人;生殖
quote:verb.引用,引证;报价
alternative:adj.供选择的;选择性的;交替的
filling:noun.填充;填料
row:noun.(一)排,(一)行
rise:noun. 上升, 上涨
base:verb.以…作基础
brand:noun.商品;烙印
ahead:adv.在前;向前;提前
yoga:noun.瑜珈(意为“结合”,指修行);瑜珈术
though:cconj. 虽然, 可是, 尽管
advanced:adj.先进的;高级的
strength:noun. 体力; 强度; 力量
release:verb.释放;发射;让与;允许发表
signal:noun.信号
combine:verb.使结合;兼有
release:noun.释放;发布;让与
campaign:noun.运动;活动;战役
lonely:adj.孤独的;荒凉的
server:noun.服务器
global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的
whatever:pron.任何;不管什么,无论什么
idol:noun.偶像, 崇拜物, 幻象, [逻]谬论
remind:verb.提醒,使想起
access:noun.通路, 访问, 入门
专辑
鼓舞人心的演讲:TEDx Worldwide 的新见解
难度
B1
词汇量
424/1483
摘要
WGSN 预测植物奶将占领世界。 但他们表示,他们能够以 95% 的把握预测未来七年的情况。 世界上最好的公司是“Kukivo-yomu”
第1句的重点词汇:
1. alternative

B1

adj.供选择的;选择性的;交替的
语法:修饰名词或代词milk的形容词

四级

托福

考研

雅思

2. oat

C1

noun.[植]燕麦, 麦片粥
语法:milk的复合词元素

托福

3. coconut

B2

noun.椰子;椰子肉
语法:milk的复合词元素

托福